19 + Nothing = 24

Six months ago, I wrote about visiting the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals to watch the oral arguments for Kitchen v. Herbert, the case in which a trio of couples were suing to bring marriage equality to Utah. This case had a great chance of being taken up by the Supreme Court, and becoming the case that would ultimately bring marriage equality to all 50 states.

Or so I thought. Yesterday, the Supreme Court made a move that surprised almost every court watcher there is. The Kitchen case, along with similar cases from four other states, had all made it to the Supremes over the summer. Last Monday, they held their first conference in months, and yesterday were scheduled to announce several orders from that meeting. The conventional wisdom was that they were either going to sit on the cases, waiting for a few more that are expected any day now from two other appeals Circuits, or grant a hearing of one or more of the cases, setting the stage for a big showdown a few months from now, and a big ruling in June of 2015.

Instead, the Supreme Court denied a hearing in all of the cases. In doing so, they allowed the Appeals Court rulings of the 4th, 7th, and 10th Circuits to stand. All five of states where the bans were struck down immediately implemented the change. And just like that, by the Supreme Court doing nothing, the U.S. went from 19 states with marriage equality to 24. Throughout the day, plaintiff couples in the various cases -- previously denied their rights -- were finally getting married, including the couple from which the Kitchen case got its name.

But these "non-rulings" from the Supreme Court will have a bigger impact still. Those three appeals courts all control multiple states beyond the five targeted in those lawsuits, including 6 others that don't presently recognize marriage equality. Those appeals court rulings will now stand as binding judicial precedent for all of them. In the days and weeks ahead, lawyers and couples will push in federal courts in each of those states, where the judges will have a very quick and easy decision before them. The higher court rulings will instruct them to strike down the bans in their own states. In short order, the number of states with marriage equality will rise to 30.

Colorado is almost certainly poised to become #25, because all that work has already been done. Months ago, judges in both state and federal court struck down the Colorado ban on same-sex marriage, but both stayed their rulings (or were made to stay them by higher courts) pending word from the Supreme Court. Now that the word has come (in the form of silence), it's just a matter of lifting those stays. This is expected to happen within a matter of days. Indeed, Pueblo County is not bothering to wait on the technicalities, and began issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples yesterday. [UPDATE: Just hours after I first posted this, all the stays I mentioned were dissolved. Colorado has indeed become state #25.]

From 30, we're probably not far from 35. The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments last month in cases from Idaho and Nevada, and there was little doubt from the attitudes of the three judges (and the legal precedent on gay rights already set in that region) that their ruling will strike down those bans. Having now seen that the Supreme Court has no interest in getting involved with pro-equality rulings, the judges will allow their ruling to go into immediate effect, and the same ripples will go on to cover three more states in the Circuit shortly after. [UPDATE #2: Just a few more hours after the Colorado update I posted above, the 9th Circuit issued their rulings, striking down the bans in Nevada and Idaho as predicted. It's been an eventful couple of days!]

Meanwhile, eyes will be on the 6th Circuit. Two months ago, they too heard cases, out of all four of the states in their area. Their three judge panel seemed to have one clear vote to uphold the bans, one to strike them down, and one fence-sitter. Many court watchers believed that he would probably uphold the bans. But then, look how wrong the court watchers got it yesterday. Will the 6th Circuit and this judge listen to one of the more ominous silences to come from the Supreme Court this century, and turn 35 to 39?

And then what about those last 11 states, which include the most conservative appeals court in the country (the 5th, covering -- you guessed it -- Texas, among others)? What about the 8th circuit, that actually ruled in 2006 (before the Supremes struck down DOMA two years ago) that bans on same-sex marriage were legal? Will they do an about face when given another chance? In short, there's still a lot of work to do. But for couples in several states, June 2015 came eight-and-a-half months early yesterday.

It turns out I wasn't there for The Case To Make History. But I'm not disappointed to have guessed wrong.