DS9 Flashback: Statistical Probabilities

The fifth season of Star Trek: Deep Space Nine had revealed that Julian Bashir was genetically enhanced as a child... but then the series had only occasionally made use of that detail. Show runner Ira Steven Behr felt that an episode focusing on this was in order, and the result was "Statistical Probabilities."

A quartet of genetically manipulated humans comes to the station for counseling with Julian Bashir. Each was modified as a child like he was, but with profound psychological side effects. Jack is manic and violent, Patrick has the emotional development of a child, Lauren is a leering nymphomaniac, and Sarina is borderline catatonic. Bashir's efforts to relate to them are rocky at best... until the group observes a broadcast from Cardassia's new leader, Damar. Sizing him up with uncanny accuracy, the group becomes a think tank for Dominion strategy. But their bleak outlook on the future quickly puts Bashir at odds with his friends.

There's a lot of lightness at play in this episode. It's easy to get swept up in that, laughing at Jack's patter (rules like "don't open an airlock when someone's inside it"), watching O'Brien interact with Patrick as he might with his daughter Molly, or chuckling at Lauren's overt flirtations. There's humor beyond the self-dubbed "mutants" too, like watching Weyoun turn on a dime from menace to excitement, prop comedy involving Sisko and an arsenal of PADDs, and the lighter banter between O'Brien (who just "wants to play with his friend") and Bashir.

Some of the lightness is perhaps dialed up a little too high. Jack's staccato "hmm? hmm?" grates quickly. Lauren's commitment to reclining on the couch is arguably too exaggerated. But the episode shows restraint in other areas. You'd expect Sarina to speak by the end of the episode, but she never does. (She was filmed speaking, in a scene where she frees the captive Bashir. I think the episode is better overall for having cut this moment.)

Despite the comedy, there's a lot of serious material in the mix here too. Through one lens, the "Jack Pack" (as the writers called them) can read as occupying different points on the autism spectrum. There is hope they can learn smooth interactions with the rest of society, but for now, none is able to live on their own. Through another lens, you could see these people as a metaphor for undocumented immigrants brought as children to another country. Their very existence is seen as a crime, though they themselves committed no crime -- a reality debated in the episode in a rare scene involving most of the cast (everyone, in fact, but Quark and Jake).

The analogies aren't perfect, though, and the story is hardly ripped from the headlines. If anything, it's ripped from the pages of Isaac Asimov's Foundation books. The Jack Pack's grim predictions for the future are inspired by the idea of "psychohistory" from that series, the idea that the future is predictable -- even inevitable -- from a broad enough viewpoint, even if any one particular is unknowable. There is a twist here, though, entwining that idea with Star Trek's fictional history of the Eugenics Wars. Use too much genetic manipulation to make a person better, and they will act like they're better than everyone else.

There's no one more suited than Deep Space Nine's "Everyman," Miles Edward O'Brien, to voice the opposing argument here. He may be "uncomplicated," but you never know when he might surprise you. He says Bashir may know a lot, but not nearly as much as he thinks he knows. Yet in the end, O'Brien also acknowledges Bashir's instinct to save lives. O'Brien's scenes get at the message of this story more deftly than Bashir's two dabo table rants -- one about inevitable odds, one about the value of risk-taking.

Other observations:

• This episode was directed by Anson Williams. Yes, Happy Days fans, that Anson Williams.

• In his discussions of the future, Bashir mentions two things that actually do end up happening later in the series: the Romulans are drawn into the conflict, and an anti-Dominion coup does take place on Cardassia.

• This is the first episode with Damar that doesn't include Dukat. Here, he's spouting much of the same autocratic language as Dukat, though he's clearly under tighter control by Weyoun.

• Kira gets a reunion of sorts with Weyoun and Damar after the end of the recent occupation, pointedly welcoming them to Deep Space Nine.

• A big dance number was planned for Julian and Lauren, to be filmed in a single shot using a camera crane. But Alexander Siddig and Hilary Shepard-Turner reportedly did not have the great coordination of their characters. They stepped all over each other's feet so much that the dance was reduced to a few quick twirls through a much tighter shot.

This episode might have been better served if the Jack Pack characters had been a little more serious. Still, I think it's a decent episode overall. I give it a B.